The world faces an imminent challenge we must tackle, NOW! – 1 Update

Life as we know it is coming to an end…

We have been writing about the demise of the Eurozone and its attendant collapse for over a year. Well, we are now here and the collapse and subsequent contagion will commence momentarily. Greece is likely to crater into a catastrophic default in a matter of months. Following close behind will be Spain, Italy, and France. They will be losing control of over Euro 4.3 trillion in sovereign debt.

If that doesn’t get Germany to wash its hands of the whole mess, I don’t know what will. The resultant chaos would be far more than Germany could handle, economically, or, culturally. Was there a sign, which signaled the end of hope for the Eurozone?

There was, it was the fact that President Obama began encouraging the Eurozone to back away from austerity as a solution and move to a growth strategy instead. President Obama and his administration, with that change in posture, provided confirmation of his helplessness in the face of imminent collapse of the Western world economies.

We know this because Dr. Albert Bartlett, emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder, is in the 5th decade of presenting his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population, and Energy: Sustainability 101. His first presentation was September 1969, and has subsequently delivered it every 8.5 days for the next 36 years.

Professor Barlett begins his lecture by saying that, The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. He noted that even modest annual increases will inevitably result in huge exponential growth over sustained periods of time. Sustained growth is not possible in a world of limited resources (see Chris Martenson’s Crash Course). Obviously President Obama’s plan to grow GDP to solve the sovereign debt problem is doomed since GDP growth cannot match the current growth of government debt creation. It may be possible to manage our way out of trouble, but, not possible to grow our way out, without serious debt reduction.

Europe appears to be beyond saving, particularly given the political gridlock being displayed in Greece, Spain, Italy, and France. The United States is not handling the political gridlock any better than the Europeans, and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, & South Africa) are facing serious economic infrastructure challenges of their own.

Japan is in a difficulty class of it’s own. Its’ population is the oldest among the industrialized world. The aging population needs more and more young people to support the large retiring population, yet, it is experiencing a brain drain as educated young people leave the country, failing to return.

Japan has no natural resources and imports nearly everything. The March 11, 2011 triple whammy of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident, destroyed agricultural businesses, crippled manufacturing businesses, disrupted power generation and supply in Japan. Japan was heavily dependent on nuclear power generation, yet, the last of Japan’s nuclear plants was shut down in April 2012.

Japan’s economy, for the past 3 decades has been on life support, with Japan sovereign debt at 250% of GDP. Japan’s revenues have fallen to the point insufficient to cover sovereign debt interest expense. Japan now faces the future with its economy, finances, and culture in grave danger and serious decline.

The US solution of printing more money is at an end. We must manage our country and resources to have any hope of emerging from this crisis. We are in a leadership vacuum, focused, committed, and determined leadership must arise and take the helm. Tomorrow is vanishing quickly, we must act, now, or lose everything.

Geoff

Postscript: May 21, 2012 G8 Talk of Growth Over Austerity Could Be Red Herring – Business News – CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com//id/47410002

References:

Please pay special attention to references #1,2, & 10.

1) Professor Albert Bartlett: Arithmetic, Population and Energy (Lecture) | Watch Free Documentary Online: http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/arithmetic-population-and-energy-lecture/

2) The Crash Course – Chris Martenson – chapters, Crash Course, Economy, Energy, environment, Peak Oil, videos, what should I do: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

3) May 13, 2012 Why A Greek Exit From The Euro Would Mean The End Of The Eurozone: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/why-a-greek-exit-from-the-euro-would-mean-the-end-of-the-eurozone

4) May 14, 2012 The Bank Runs In Greece Will Soon Be Followed By Bank Runs In Other European Nations: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-bank-runs-in-greece-will-soon-be-followed-by-bank-runs-in-other-european-nations

5) May 15, 2012 We Are Watching The Greek Banking System Die Right In Front Of Our Eyes: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/we-are-watching-the-greek-banking-system-die-right-in-front-of-our-eyes

6) May 16, 2012 Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis: Real Estate Crash in China Underway: Foreign Funding Down 80%, Land Sales Down 57%, Starts Down 27%; Expect Chinese GDP to Plunge: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/05/real-estate-crash-in-china-underway.html

7) May 16, 2012 Testosterone Pit – Home – The Greek Extortion Racket In Its Final Spasm: http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/5/16/the-greek-extortion-racket-in-its-final-spasm.html

8) May 17, 2012 18 Signs That The Banking Crisis In Europe Has Just Gone From Bad To Worse: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/18-signs-that-the-banking-crisis-in-europe-has-just-gone-from-bad-to-worse

9) May 19, 2012 Alasdair Macleod: All Roads In Europe Lead To Gold | ZeroHedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/alasdair-macleod-all-roads-europe-lead-gold

10) March 21, 2012 US Public Debt Growing at Unsustainable Rate :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33724.html

 

Posted in Asia, Debt, Economics, Energy, EU, Fragile Markets, Geoff Yuen, Government Spending, Nuclear Accident, Philosophy, Politics, USA | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nassim Taleb Re-emerges For Some Long Awaited Comments on JP Morgan

One of our favorite writer/philosopher/trader’s Nassim Taleb is visibly pissed regarding JP Morgan’s poorly designed trade (allegedly a hedge). Taleb prefers the hedge fund model for trading risk, as do we, since hedge funds have “skin in the game” not just taxpayer dollars in the game.

He expresses disdain for the large compensation packages for bankers, particularly Ina Drew of JP Morgan, stating the John Gotti didn’t even make what she made. The clear distinction is that Gotti didn’t characterize himself something other than a gangster.

John

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Interview with Jim Sinclair, Legendary Gold Trader and Mine Owner

Futures Magazine had a lengthy interview with Jim Sinclair. In light of recent problems in the Eurozone and volatility in metals prices, we thought it would be a useful interview for our readers to examine. We also found his comments on bankings SWIFT system to very intriguing.

Jim Sinclair is not simply a gold bug; he successfully has called every major move in the precious metal — both up and down — over a generation. But he is not merely a market guru either. Sinclair has had a love affair with markets for 50 years. He has owned brokerages, clearing firms, mining companies and a precious metals dealer. His Sinclair Group of Companies, founded in 1977, offered brokerage services in stocks, bonds and commodities operating in New York, Kansas City, Toronto, Chicago, London and Geneva until he sold them in 1983. At one time he was considered the largest gold trader in the world, but today he is running his African-based Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Company and the MineSet web site that provides unique macroeconomic information to his loyal followers. Sinclair is a good person to listen to.

Read the Full Interview

 

 

John

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Jeff Gundlach reveals the Natural Gas Trade

We were thinking along similar lines regarding natural gas, specifically in buying call options. Jeff Gundlach discusses his weird short Apple, long Natural Gas play, as well as some other funny discussions with Tom Keene.

John

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Austerity in Europe. Has it been tried or not?

There is doubt…

Writing in Cafehayek.com, Russ Roberts responds to John Cassidy’s article in the New Yorker in which Cassidy writes:

When the campaign turns to questions of economics, what is happening in Europe should provide Obama with plenty of arguments with which to flay his opponents. Republicans say they want to slash government spending and focus on the deficit regardless of the immediate economic situation. The Europeans have carried out that experiment, and, to say the least, it hasn’t turned out very well.

Robert’s questions (bold is our emphasis),

Really? Which nations in Europe have slashed government spending? I suppose “slash” is an ambiguous term but when you write  that the experiment has been tried, don’t you have to show that spending has at least been cut or reduced, right? Maybe some European states have slashed the growth rate in government spending? Is that what he means? If so, shouldn’t different words be used? And either way, should there be some facts on this “experiment.” The word implies something scientific. But it all appears to be going on in the mind of the writer rather than in the real world.

Similarly, this has us questioning exactly how budgets have been reduced. Researcher Veronique De Rugy has studied the “austerity” measures in the U.K, France, Germany and Greece and has formed several conclusions which she reveals in the video below. De Rugy and interviewer Nick Gillespe talk in detail about the budget process and what types of austerity work and which don’t work, citing academic studies.

Here are a couple of bullet points that we think are key takeaways.

  • The successful debt reduction package that works is centered strictly on budget cuts, not the balanced approach which simultaneously makes budget cuts and increases taxes.
  • In these so called “balanced” approaches, the tax increases are real, but the spending cuts are not.
  • Germany has successfully reduced the size and pay of government employees and resolved the incentive problems with unemployment insurance, yet few hear about German “austerity” and the focus is on Greek, French and U.K austerity, which have largely failed to materialize.


If the material De Rugy cites is accurate (often difficult with government provided data), then this answers Robert’s and our question. Austerity might be real, but not in the countries complaining about austerity.

John

References:

Russ Robert’s wants to know if austerity is real.

http://cafehayek.com/2012/05/the-austerity-experiment.html

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Attacking the Debt Problem: Technology and Education

Education: An opportunity to improve results while reducing governmental and student debt.

Several recent Geofftalk postings have expressed the problems with inefficiencies in higher education and the associated student loan debts that have been racked up to dangerous levels. Last week Ellen Brown wrote about social security garnishments to pay off student loan debt. An additional writing at ritholtz.com graphically illustrates that the massive increase in consumer credit and student loan debt are one in the same and that tuition has far exceeded the rate of growth in Core CPI. This could have disastrous consequences and Bloomberg notes that student loan debt can ultimately effect the housing market as individuals find it harder to obtain mortgage financing with unpaid balances on student loan debt.

A prior geofftalk post, A Market Force Change in Higher Education (http://geofftalk.com/?p=2934), had an actual fix for this problem, which is technology. Others have advanced this idea as well. Writing in Forbes, Publisher Rich Karlgaard writes “Let Technology transform education and healthcare.” He notes the success of Stanford’s Sebastian Thrun, who makes his course available online. Over 150,000 students have signed up and some of the highest performing students are online students.

Traditional brick and mortar schools will continue to have a place where hands on skills are required and a high level of interaction between students and faculty is required. However, for strictly intellectual pursuits such as social sciences, mathematics and business, online will be the way to go simply because traditional schools will be too overpriced to compete. Technology will be the solution to a lot of education problems. Further, much of higher education is overated and the costs are not reflected in actual productivity in the workforce. These degrees should be considered a luxury good and as such should only be paid with cash, rather than debt.

Source: Ritholtz.com

John

References.

1) Karlgaard on Technology transforming education.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2012/0507/innovation-rules-government-tax-code-debt-america-needs-growth-rich-karlgaard_2.html

2) Student Loan Debt outpaces wages and could cause problems in the housing sector.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/-explosion-in-student-debt-drags-down-housing-chart-of-the-day.html

3) I hate parabolas unless it is my bank account balance. Ritholtz shows why consumer credit is worse than you think.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/05/consumer-credit-worse-than-you-think/

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The United States committed to a form of cultural and economic suicide

Americans renouncing citizenship picking up steam…

Eduardo Saverin, a billionaire co-founder of Facebook, renounced his US citizenship to ostensibly avoid an estimated $600 million in capital gains taxes, due as he sells Facebook stock.  Although this example seems to be a case of a citizen thriving in the US, only to run to avoid paying any tax, the news renewed questions of the wisdom of targeting high-income citizens for ever increasing income taxes to feed a government whose spending has careened out of control.

We have already seen an exodus of high-income people out of the troubled Eurozone.  The new president-elect of France, Francoise Hollande has reaffirmed his vow to tax personal income in France in excess of Euro 1 million at a rate of 75%.  The combination of ubiquitous sovereign government over spending, severe austerity measures, and oppressive taxes has caused highly productive people to closely examine options to reduce their rising tax burden.

The obvious Challenge for all these countries to escalate tax extraction from the most productive part of the population, is that that part of the population also has the where-with-all to live wherever they choose.

Eduardo Saverin apparently chose Singapore when he realized his capital gains tax would be $600 million, because Singapore has no capital gains tax.  Sovereign nations all over the world face a debilitating brain drain by targeting its most productive citizens as sources of revenue.  Obviously the corrosive damage to these sovereign states will be self-inflicted.

Wikipedia revealed that the United States experienced 222-235 individual renouncements of citizenship in 2008, 731-743 in 2009, 1485 in 2010, and 1781 in 2011.  This type of growth in numbers is described as exponential.

A previous GeoffTalk.com article of June 13, 2011 quoted Dr. Albert Bartlett of the University of Colorado at Boulder, “the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”  Dr. Bartlett’s famous video presentation of this phenomenon is included in the GeoffTalk.com post, Americans Targeted for Higher Taxation Renouncing Citizenship is referenced at the end of this post.

The sovereign nations who are targeting their most productive citizens do not seem to realize that they are giving up their greatest assets.  Please study the attached references and get active in helping leaders think this situation through before this form of national suicide is implemented.

Forewarned is forearmed…

Geoff

References:

1) May 11, 2012 Facebook co-founder renounces citizenship ahead of IPO | Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/05/11/facebook-co-founder-renounces-citizenship-ahead-of-ipo/

2) May 11, 2012 Facebook co-founder gives up U.S. citizenship: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/05/11/BU0R1OGS6M.DTL

Previous related GeoffTalk.com post:

June 13, 2011 Americans Targeted for Higher Taxation Renouncing Citizenship. | GeoffTalk: http://geofftalk.com/?p=269

 

 

Posted in Catastrophe, Debt, Economics, Fragile Markets, Geoff Yuen, Government, Philosophy, Politics, Public Service, USA | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Who says George W. Bush has no sense of humor?

Steve Bridges – As George W. Bush with George W. Bush!

2006 White House Correspondents’ Dinner

Submitted for posting by GeoffTalk.com reader Brad Cummins of Austin, Texas.

A ‘tip o’ the hat’ to Brad Cummins.

Geoff

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US Seniors robbed, again, by the US Congress

Indentured Servitude for Seniors: Social Security Garnished for Student Debts

Posted on May 11, 2012 by Ellen Brown

The Social Security program…represents our commitment as a society to the belief that workers should not live in dread that a disability, death, or old age could leave them or their families destitute.

– President Jimmy Carter, December 20, 1977.

[This law] assures the elderly that America will always keep the promises made in troubled times a half century ago…[The Social Security Amendments of 1983 are] a monument to the spirit of compassion and commitment that unites us as a people.

– President Ronald Reagan, April 20, 1983

So said Presidents Carter and Reagan, but that was before 1996, when Congress voted to allow federal agencies to offset portions of Social Security payments to collect debts owed to those agencies. (31 U.S.C. §3716).  Now we read of horror stories like this:

I’m a 68 year old grandma of 2 young grandchildren. I went to college to upgrade my employment status in 1998 or 1999. I finished in 2000 and at that time had a student loan balance of about 3500.00.

Could not find a job and had to request forbearance to carry me. Over the years I forgot about the loan, dealt with poor health, had brain surgery in 2006 and the collection agents decided to collect for the loan in 2008.

At no time during the 6-7 year gap did anyone remind me or let me know that I could make a minimum payment on the loan. Now that I am on Social Security (have been since I was 62), they have decided to garnishee my SS check to the tune of 15%.

I have not been employed since 2004 and have the two dependents . . . .  I don’t dispute that I owed them the $3500.00 but am wondering why they let it build up to somewhere around $17,000/20,000 before they attempted to collect.

Her debt went from $3500 to over $17,000 in 10 years?!  How could that be?

It seems that Congress has removed nearly every consumer protection from student loans, including not only standard bankruptcy protections, statutes of limitations, and truth in lending requirements, but protection from usury (excessive interest).  Lenders can vary the interest rates, and some borrowers are reporting rates as high as 18-20%.  At 20%, debt doubles in just 3-1/2 years; and in 7 years, it quadruples.  Congress has also given lenders draconian collection powers to extort not just the original principal and interest on student loans but huge sums in penalties, fees, and collection costs.

The majority of these debts are being imposed on young people, who have a potential 40 years of gainful employment ahead of them to pay the debt off.  But a sizeable chunk of U.S. student loan debt is held by senior citizens, many of whom are not only unemployed but unemployable.  According to the New York Federal Reserve, two million U.S. seniors age 60 and over have student loan debt, on which they owe a collective $36.5 billion; and 11.2 percent of this debt is in default.  Almost a third of all student loan debt is held by people aged 40 and over, and 4.2% is held by people over the age of 60.  The total student debt is now over $1 trillion, more even than credit card debt.  The sum is unsustainable and threatens to be the next debt tsunami.

Some of this debt is for loans taken out years earlier on their own schooling, and some is from co-signing student loans for children or grandchildren.  But much of it has been incurred by middle-aged people going back to school in the hope of finding employment in a bad job market.  What they have wound up with is something much worse: no job, an exponentially mounting debt that cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, and the prospect of old age without a social security check adequate to survive on.

Gone is the promise of earlier presidents of a “commitment to the belief that workers should not live in dread that a disability, death, or old age could leave them or their families destitute.”  The plight of the indebted elderly is reminiscent of the Irish immigrants who came to America after a potato famine in the 19th century, who were looked upon in some places as actually lower than slaves. Plantation owners kept their slaves fed, clothed and cared for, because they were valuable property.  The Irish were expendable, and they were on their own.

It is obviously not a good time to raise interest rates on student debt, but they are set to double on July 1, 2012, to 6.8%.  Many lawmakers in both parties agree that the current 3.4% rates should be extended for another year, but they can’t agree on how to find the $6 billion that this would cost.  Republicans want to take the money from a health care fund that promotes preventive care; Democrats want to eliminate some tax benefits for small business owners.

Congress cannot agree on $6 billion to save the students, yet they managed to agree in a matter of days in September 2008 to come up with $700 billion to save the banks; and the Federal Reserve found many trillions more.  Estimates are that tuition could be provided free to students for a mere $30 billion annually.  The government has the power to find $30 billion — or $300 billion or $3 trillion — in the same place the Federal Reserve found it: it can simply issue the money.

Congress is empowered by the Constitution to “coin money” and “regulate the value thereof,” and no limit is set on the face amount of the coins it creates. It could issue a few one-billion dollar coins, deposit them in an account, and start writing checks.

But wouldn’t that be inflationary?  No.  The Fed’s own figures show that the money supply (M3) has shrunk by $3 trillion since 2008. That sum could be added back into the economy without inflating prices.  Gas and food are going up today, but the whole range of prices must be considered in order to determine whether price inflation is occurring.  Housing and wages are significantly larger components of the price structure than commodities, and they remain severely depressed.

There is another way the government could find needed funds without raising taxes, slashing services, or going further into debt: Congress could re-finance the federal debt through the Federal Reserve, interest-free.  Canada did this from 1939 to 1974, keeping its national debt low and sustainable while funding massive programs including seaways, roadways, pensions, and national health care.  The national debt shot up only when the government switched from borrowing from its own central bank to borrowing from private lenders at interest.  The rationale was that borrowing bank-created money from the government’s own central bank inflated the money supply, while borrowing existing funds from private banks did not.  But even the Federal Reserve acknowledges that private banks create the money they lend on their books, just as central banks do.

U.S. taxpayers now pay nearly half a trillion dollars annually to finance our federal debt.  The cumulative figure comes to $8.2 trillion paid in interest just in the last 24 years.  By financing the debt itself rather than paying interest to private parties, the government could divert what it would have paid in interest into tuition, jobs, infrastructure and social services, allowing us to keep the social contract while at the same time stimulating the economy.

For students, at the very least the bankruptcy option needs to be reinstated, usury laws restored, predatory practices eliminated, and the cost of education brought back down to earth.  One possibility for relieving the burden on students would be to give them interest-free loans.  The government of New  Zealand now offers 0% loans to New Zealand students, with repayment to be made from their income after they graduate.  For the past twenty years, the Australian government has also successfully funded students by giving out what are in effect interest-free loans.  The loans in the Australian Higher Education Loan Programme (or HELP) do not bear interest, but the government gets back more than it lends, because the principal is indexed to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which goes up every year.

Predatory lenders are keeping us in debt peonage through misguided economics and bank-captured legislators.  We have people who desperately want to work, to the point of going back to school to try to improve their chances; and we have mountains of work that needs to be done.  The only thing keeping them apart is that artificial constraint called “money”, which we have allowed to be created by banks and let out at interest when it could have been created by public institutions for public purposes, either by direct issuance or through publicly-owned banks.  We just need to recognize our oppressors and throw off their yoke, and the good times can roll again.

Reprinted from Web of Debt as a public service.

A ‘tip o’ the hat’ to Ellen Brown for the submission.

More on Ellen Brown may be found at Web of Debt (www.webofdebt.com) and Public Banking Institute (www.publicbankinginstitute.org).

Geoff

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The American Spirit

Every American should take the time to listen to the inspiring words of President Ronald Reagan in this special tribute…

Leadership by inspiration is a rarity today…

Submitted for posting by GeoffTalk.com reader Brad Cummins, Esq. of Austin, Texas

A ‘tip o’ the hat’ to Brad Cummins, Esq.

Geoff & John

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